Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (8:12 am) · 339 comments
Update Feb 2010: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Page 14 - Quake Database Demonstrates Proof of Theory
Page 15 - Eclipse Quake Correlative Data
So this is the application of the idea in the post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
Page 13 - December 31st 2009 Prediction Updates
Page 14 - Quake Database Demonstrates Proof of Theory
Page 15 - Quake Database and Eclipse Quake Correlation
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. Later I built a quake database that merged USGS online world wide earth quake data gathered from 1973 to present day. In 2010 I merged that data with the Nasa eclipse data to make the predictions for the summer of 2010. The 2009 prediction was based on assumptions.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
Page 14 - Quake Database Demonstrates Proof of Theory
Page 15 - Eclipse Quake Correlative Data
So this is the application of the idea in the post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
Page 13 - December 31st 2009 Prediction Updates
Page 14 - Quake Database Demonstrates Proof of Theory
Page 15 - Quake Database and Eclipse Quake Correlation
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. Later I built a quake database that merged USGS online world wide earth quake data gathered from 1973 to present day. In 2010 I merged that data with the Nasa eclipse data to make the predictions for the summer of 2010. The 2009 prediction was based on assumptions.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
#302
The Earthquakes of 13 and 19 October 1963 - A pair of large magnitude earthquakes occurred north of Hokkaido, in the southern Kuril Islands on the 13 and 19 of October 1963. The 13 October earthquake had an Ms = 8.1 and an Mw = 8.5 while the 19 October earthquake had an Ms = 7.2 and an Mw = 7.8. Both quakes generated tsunamis.
Those magnitude 8 quakes are nasty!
People are starting to wonder if the massive quakes in Chile and Hati are related. If they are it would probably be something like solar / lunar gravitational pull. What does current science say? "Its unpredictable, don't bother thinking about it."
-----
Earthquake Facts from CNN
• Dr. Kurt Frankel of the Georgia Institute of Technology, who specializes in active tectonics, says that earthquakes are sporadic and unpredictable in nature.
• According to Frankel, the fact that these relatively strong quakes would strike around the same time is merely coincidence. Because the quakes did happen one after another, earthquakes are on people's mind, Frankel explained. "Had the quakes in Haiti and Chile not occurred recently, we might not have even been interested in the other quakes," he said.
-----
I really have no competition in the scientific community trying to predict earthquakes based on the lunar Saros cycles.
The Haiti Quake occurred 2 days before the Annular Solar eclipse on 2010-01-15. The Chile quake occurred one day before a full moon, exactly 2 cycles after the 2009-12-31 lunar eclipse.
No correlation, eh? Its only 100% correlation with these two quakes if you give a 4 day window around the last few lunar syzygy's.
03/08/2010 (12:32 pm)
According to the Tokai University Marine Museum in Japan, an oarfish was caught two days before a major earthquake on Niijima island, near Tokyo, in 1963. When shock waves hit Uwajima Bay in 1968, the same type of rare fish was caught only a few days before.SOURCE QUAKE_DATE MAG REGION LAT LONG E_DATE TYPE OBS SAROS E_LAT E_LONG DAYS_AFTER -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 1968-05-16 00:48:55 8.2 JAPAN: HONSHU ISLAND 40.8 143.2 1968-03-28 SOLAR Partial 119 -61.0 -079.8 49 NGDC 1968-05-16 00:48:55 8.2 JAPAN: HONSHU ISLAND 40.8 143.2 1968-04-13 LUNAR Total 131 -0009 -00072 33 NGDC 1968-05-16 10:39:01 7.5 JAPAN: HONSHU ISLAND 41.5 142.7 1968-03-28 SOLAR Partial 119 -61.0 -079.8 49 NGDC 1968-05-16 10:39:01 7.5 JAPAN: HONSHU ISLAND 41.5 142.7 1968-04-13 LUNAR Total 131 -0009 -00072 33 NGDC 1968-10-07 19:20:00 7.5 JAPAN: BONIN ISLANDS 26.3 140.6 1968-09-22 SOLAR Total 124 56.2 064.0 16 NGDC 1968-10-07 19:20:00 7.5 JAPAN: BONIN ISLANDS 26.3 140.6 1968-10-06 LUNAR Total 136 0006 -00179 2
The Earthquakes of 13 and 19 October 1963 - A pair of large magnitude earthquakes occurred north of Hokkaido, in the southern Kuril Islands on the 13 and 19 of October 1963. The 13 October earthquake had an Ms = 8.1 and an Mw = 8.5 while the 19 October earthquake had an Ms = 7.2 and an Mw = 7.8. Both quakes generated tsunamis.
Those magnitude 8 quakes are nasty!
People are starting to wonder if the massive quakes in Chile and Hati are related. If they are it would probably be something like solar / lunar gravitational pull. What does current science say? "Its unpredictable, don't bother thinking about it."
-----
Earthquake Facts from CNN
• Dr. Kurt Frankel of the Georgia Institute of Technology, who specializes in active tectonics, says that earthquakes are sporadic and unpredictable in nature.
• According to Frankel, the fact that these relatively strong quakes would strike around the same time is merely coincidence. Because the quakes did happen one after another, earthquakes are on people's mind, Frankel explained. "Had the quakes in Haiti and Chile not occurred recently, we might not have even been interested in the other quakes," he said.
-----
I really have no competition in the scientific community trying to predict earthquakes based on the lunar Saros cycles.
SOURCE QUAKE_DATE MAG REGION LAT LONG E_DATE TYPE OBS SAROS E_LAT E_LONG DAYS_AFTER --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-01-03 22:36:30 7.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS -8.9 157.3 2010-01-15 SOLAR Annular 141 01.6 069.3 -11 NGDC 2010-01-03 22:36:30 7.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS -8.9 157.3 2009-12-31 LUNAR Partial 115 0024 00070 4 NGDC 2010-01-12 21:53:10 7 HAITI: 18.4 -72.5 2010-01-15 SOLAR Annular 141 01.6 069.3 -2 NGDC 2010-01-12 21:53:10 7 HAITI: 18.4 -72.5 2009-12-31 LUNAR Partial 115 0024 00070 13 NGDC 2010-02-27 06:34:14 8.8 CHILE -35.8 -72.7 2010-01-15 SOLAR Annular 141 01.6 069.3 43 NGDC 2010-02-27 06:34:14 8.8 CHILE -35.8 -72.7 2009-12-31 LUNAR Partial 115 0024 00070 58
The Haiti Quake occurred 2 days before the Annular Solar eclipse on 2010-01-15. The Chile quake occurred one day before a full moon, exactly 2 cycles after the 2009-12-31 lunar eclipse.
No correlation, eh? Its only 100% correlation with these two quakes if you give a 4 day window around the last few lunar syzygy's.
#303
I've noticed a very strong correlation between the Saros cycles and quakes. Just to show you what I am looking at, the top graph shows the latitude and longitude of all eclipses from 2009-2010. Notice that the next 3 eclipses are all in the pacific, to the east of south America. This is where the moon is heading. This, I believe, is where the quakes are heading as well. South America, New Zealand, Australia will be hit hard this summer. Yeah, Japan and Taiwan too, Philippines and Papau New Guinea, but to a lesser extent.
What scares me is the rise of quakes in the United States near Missouri. If EQSA is right, then Madrid and Arkansas are due for big quakes. If not this time around then in 2028. Its been exactly 11 Saros cycles, and the same lunar Saros cycles 115,120,141,146 that were present in the Magnitude 8 quakes in 1812.
New Data Confirms Strong Earthquake Risk to Central U.S.
New Madrid and the Surrounding Areas Can Expect Another Major Earthquake Within the Next 50 Years
Recent measurements of the new Madrid fault zone has shown that it is no longer moving. Either its shut down, or its land locked. The quakes, and fault line follow the Mississippi river from Missouri through Arkansas.
Quake Data source National Geophysics Data Center, Eclipse Data source Nasa.
03/09/2010 (11:28 am)
As they say a picture is worth a great deal of words. I've used EQSA to generate data that I feed to Excel. I look to see the locations of the Eclipses and the locations of the Earthquakes. As you can see there does seem to be a correlation. I've noticed a very strong correlation between the Saros cycles and quakes. Just to show you what I am looking at, the top graph shows the latitude and longitude of all eclipses from 2009-2010. Notice that the next 3 eclipses are all in the pacific, to the east of south America. This is where the moon is heading. This, I believe, is where the quakes are heading as well. South America, New Zealand, Australia will be hit hard this summer. Yeah, Japan and Taiwan too, Philippines and Papau New Guinea, but to a lesser extent.
What scares me is the rise of quakes in the United States near Missouri. If EQSA is right, then Madrid and Arkansas are due for big quakes. If not this time around then in 2028. Its been exactly 11 Saros cycles, and the same lunar Saros cycles 115,120,141,146 that were present in the Magnitude 8 quakes in 1812.
New Data Confirms Strong Earthquake Risk to Central U.S.
New Madrid and the Surrounding Areas Can Expect Another Major Earthquake Within the Next 50 Years
Recent measurements of the new Madrid fault zone has shown that it is no longer moving. Either its shut down, or its land locked. The quakes, and fault line follow the Mississippi river from Missouri through Arkansas.
Quake Data source National Geophysics Data Center, Eclipse Data source Nasa.
#304
Over the past couple of months I've been adding more data to the EQSA database and looking at the Saros Cycles. EQSA is making predictions, that I would not. Here is an example.
Last week EQSA predicted a 5.3 or above (I subtract 1 in magnitude from historical quakes) Posted here near the bottom www.torquepowered.com/community/blog/view/15946/15
This happened on March 8th.
----
Magnitude 6.1
Date-Time Monday, March 08, 2010 at 02:32:34 UTC
Location 38.876°N, 39.992°E
Depth 12 km (7.5 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN TURKEY
----
Same spot, within 14 days of the EQSA prediction. Its based on this historical quake.
Date: 1992-03-15 16:16:24
Magnitude: 6.3
Region: TURKEY: ERZINCAN
And this one
Date: 1992-03-13 17:18:39
Magnitude: 6.7
Region: TURKEY: ERZINCAN
Both with in 90 days of Saros 115 and 141 eclipses. Both within 5 days of the 3rd lunar cycle and syzygy. The location and magnitude and time within 14 days simply cannot be ignored.
I may be dubious about the United States, but I really think Peru is next. It shows up on all of the EQSA predictions. I agree with this prediction, something I would just simply look at the Solar eclipse and the tectonic plates and say, yeah Peru is due.
The full prediction is here.
www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/march2010EQSAPredictions.txt
03/09/2010 (1:33 pm)
The reason I'm concerned about the central US is simple. I've been looking at the Pacific ocean region. I've not really looked to closely at Europe and the US. EQSA has predicted quakes in places I would not have expected. I'm still dubious, but the Saros cycle does seem to hold weight.Over the past couple of months I've been adding more data to the EQSA database and looking at the Saros Cycles. EQSA is making predictions, that I would not. Here is an example.
Last week EQSA predicted a 5.3 or above (I subtract 1 in magnitude from historical quakes) Posted here near the bottom www.torquepowered.com/community/blog/view/15946/15
Date Mag Region Lat Long --------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-03-27 5.3 TURKEY: ERZINCAN 39.53 39.93
This happened on March 8th.
----
Magnitude 6.1
Date-Time Monday, March 08, 2010 at 02:32:34 UTC
Location 38.876°N, 39.992°E
Depth 12 km (7.5 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN TURKEY
----
Same spot, within 14 days of the EQSA prediction. Its based on this historical quake.
Date: 1992-03-15 16:16:24
Magnitude: 6.3
Region: TURKEY: ERZINCAN
And this one
Date: 1992-03-13 17:18:39
Magnitude: 6.7
Region: TURKEY: ERZINCAN
Both with in 90 days of Saros 115 and 141 eclipses. Both within 5 days of the 3rd lunar cycle and syzygy. The location and magnitude and time within 14 days simply cannot be ignored.
I may be dubious about the United States, but I really think Peru is next. It shows up on all of the EQSA predictions. I agree with this prediction, something I would just simply look at the Solar eclipse and the tectonic plates and say, yeah Peru is due.
PREDICTED_DATE MAGN REGION LAT LONG -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-03-02 6.7 PERU: CHINCHA ALTA; -14.993 -75.675 2010-03-11 6.9 PERU -15 -69.5 2010-03-29 7 PERU: COAST -16 -76 2010-04-24 6.6 PERU: S -18.5 -68.5 2010-06-20 6.5 PERU: LAMAS; CHACHAPOYAS; -5.678 -76.398 2010-08-21 6.8 PERU -12.2 -77.6
The full prediction is here.
www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/march2010EQSAPredictions.txt
#305
Magnitude 2.6
Date-Time
* Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 03:50:18 UTC
* Tuesday, March 09, 2010 at 09:50:18 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.123°N, 89.735°W
Depth 8.5 km (5.3 miles)
Region SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
This is really rare, and its right on the New Madrid Zone fault line. For now I'll post it here and watch it.
Here are the EQSA Predictions (less 1 magnitude from the 1811-1812 quakes) Time adjusted for days after (and before) the quakes occurred when we had the 115,120,141,146 Saros eclipse series in 1811, 1812.
How rare is this event? Well searching all data from the NGDC and USGS loaded into EQSA here are the quakes of any magnitude in this region by year.
Its not so rare that I'd sound the alarm at this point. If I created EQSA back in 1992 it would have made the same prediction for 1992. We all know we did not have magnitude 7 quakes in Missouri in 1992.
The major draw back to the current EQSA prediction logic is also its apparent Strength. The Lunar Saros cycle is about every 18 years, so EQSA will make the same predictions every 18 years. So far this year EQSA has been very accurate.
03/09/2010 (2:50 pm)
Okay, I've been watching this region like a hawk. It just happened. I'm very concerned. For two reasons, if I blow the whistle and sound the alarm, I can cause needless fear and panic. On the other hand if I do nothing then people could get hurt.Magnitude 2.6
Date-Time
* Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 03:50:18 UTC
* Tuesday, March 09, 2010 at 09:50:18 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.123°N, 89.735°W
Depth 8.5 km (5.3 miles)
Region SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
This is really rare, and its right on the New Madrid Zone fault line. For now I'll post it here and watch it.
Here are the EQSA Predictions (less 1 magnitude from the 1811-1812 quakes) Time adjusted for days after (and before) the quakes occurred when we had the 115,120,141,146 Saros eclipse series in 1811, 1812.
PREDICTED_DATE MAGN REGION LAT LONG ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2010-04-14 7.5 ARKANSAS: NORTHEAST (NEW MADRID) 35.6 -90.4 2010-04-15 7 ARKANSAS: NORTHEAST (NEW MADRID) 35.6 -90.4 2010-05-23 7.4 MISSOURI: NEW MADRID 36.3 -89.6 2010-06-06 7.8 MISSOURI: NEW MADRID 36.5 -89.6
How rare is this event? Well searching all data from the NGDC and USGS loaded into EQSA here are the quakes of any magnitude in this region by year.
select q_year, count(*) from quake_data where latitude >=34 and latitude <= 37 and longitude >= -91 and longitude <= -88 group by q_year order by q_year Q_YEAR COUNT(*) ------------------ 1811 2 1812 2 1973 3 1974 7 1975 7 1976 4 1977 1 1978 3 1979 5 1980 2 1981 5 1982 3 1983 2 1984 2 1985 3 1986 2 1987 5 1988 2 1989 5 1990 4 1991 12 1992 6 1993 14 1994 6 1995 7 1996 4 1997 6 1998 13 1999 3 2000 5 2001 4 2002 8 2003 9 2004 7 2005 11 2006 6 2007 5 2008 15 2009 11
Its not so rare that I'd sound the alarm at this point. If I created EQSA back in 1992 it would have made the same prediction for 1992. We all know we did not have magnitude 7 quakes in Missouri in 1992.
The major draw back to the current EQSA prediction logic is also its apparent Strength. The Lunar Saros cycle is about every 18 years, so EQSA will make the same predictions every 18 years. So far this year EQSA has been very accurate.
#306
From your charts, it seems Taiwan is getting hit pretty hard last year and part of this year, I am hoping soon things will calm down. It looks like your charts are indicating how many earthquakes by the lentgh of the bar, but not about the strength.
The new madrid fault may get some activity or it may not, it is good to watch it.
You mention Berkland above, I went to his site and he has nothing recent for this year yet up, where did you find the information you posted above?
03/12/2010 (4:15 am)
Lots of stuff going on here, maybe aftershocks from the 6.4 last Thursday. I am concerned that it could only be a foreshock. Also now I have gotten word from Zhongshao about another possible quake in northern Taiwan, hopefully in the ocean, but it could be over 6. Others are talking about another 6-7.5 quake in Taiwan in the next few months.From your charts, it seems Taiwan is getting hit pretty hard last year and part of this year, I am hoping soon things will calm down. It looks like your charts are indicating how many earthquakes by the lentgh of the bar, but not about the strength.
The new madrid fault may get some activity or it may not, it is good to watch it.
You mention Berkland above, I went to his site and he has nothing recent for this year yet up, where did you find the information you posted above?
#307
Here is the information on Jim Berkland.
He also had a national geographic article on the lunar events a really great write up which now appears missing. Getting it from the google cache before its lost.
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0523_050523_moonquake_2.html
Here is the text...
The Earth and moon are closest together—at perigee—once a month. The Earth and sun are closest together—at perihelion—once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occur on the same day as perihelion.
According to Berkland, seismometers left on the moon by Apollo astronauts show that moonquakes occur most frequently at perigee.
"So we know Earth's gravity triggers moonquakes. I don't think any scientist disputes that," Berkland said. "When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what's so difficult about turning it around?"
According to Berkland, the U.S. Geological Survey said such a theory is ridiculous—the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, they said, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes.
But the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth "is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes," he said.
Using syzygy and other factors—such as the number of cats and dogs listed in the lost and found in newspaper classified advertisements—Berkland said he accurately predicted several earthquakes, including the October 17, 1989 earthquake in San Francisco, California. Berkland said the number of cats and dogs reported missing goes up prior to an earthquake. The numbers went up significantly prior to the 1989 San Francisco quake, he said.
At least two major quakes may suppoort Berkland's theory. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. Likewise, the March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.
According to Berkland, such correlations are more than coincidences. They demonstrate a true connection between the moon and earthquake activity, he said.
03/12/2010 (7:01 am)
Seneq, yes I expect at least a magnitude 6 in Japan and Taiwan before the end of August. I would not be surpirsed to get a major 7+ quake as well. EQSA used the past lunar Saros cycle and to predict quakes there and in Burma this summer. Here is the information on Jim Berkland.
He also had a national geographic article on the lunar events a really great write up which now appears missing. Getting it from the google cache before its lost.
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0523_050523_moonquake_2.html
Here is the text...
The Earth and moon are closest together—at perigee—once a month. The Earth and sun are closest together—at perihelion—once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occur on the same day as perihelion.
According to Berkland, seismometers left on the moon by Apollo astronauts show that moonquakes occur most frequently at perigee.
"So we know Earth's gravity triggers moonquakes. I don't think any scientist disputes that," Berkland said. "When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what's so difficult about turning it around?"
According to Berkland, the U.S. Geological Survey said such a theory is ridiculous—the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, they said, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes.
But the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth "is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes," he said.
Using syzygy and other factors—such as the number of cats and dogs listed in the lost and found in newspaper classified advertisements—Berkland said he accurately predicted several earthquakes, including the October 17, 1989 earthquake in San Francisco, California. Berkland said the number of cats and dogs reported missing goes up prior to an earthquake. The numbers went up significantly prior to the 1989 San Francisco quake, he said.
At least two major quakes may suppoort Berkland's theory. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. Likewise, the March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.
According to Berkland, such correlations are more than coincidences. They demonstrate a true connection between the moon and earthquake activity, he said.
#308
http://www.earthquakesignals.com/zhonghao296/images2009/201003042100TaiwanJ4b.jpg
He told me the circle is the most likely place for it to occur, and let us hope that it is out in the ocean. However the rectangle presents possible locations as well.
To all, please do not contact Zhonghshao, he is sick and has limited time to finish his research, the doctors have only given him a few years to live, but he is dedicated to finishing his research even from the hospital. The only reason he replied to me is because we have been talking for many years. I want him to finish his theory and research. His website provides a lot of information, including the high possiblity that the French Air flight that crashed over Africa was caused by an earthquake cloud and he has many examples to back up the theory, it is published in a journal now.
Britton, I do am predicting something bigger around Taiwan 5.5-7.5 before the end of June, I had said this back in January, it will be significant, and I do not think the 6.4 we had is the largest. That could have been a foreshock. There have been earthquake clouds around Taiwan seen from almost every area of the island, some daily in the last few months.
03/12/2010 (2:16 pm)
Take a look at ZhongShans work, I sent him a satellite image last week to verify an earthquake cloud and he reverted a 5.5-6+ likely in northern Taiwan by June 25, where I am, so I have started to prepare. I have also felt not very good the last few days, physically which is a sign, but not necessily in Taiwan. Here are the links.http://www.earthquakesignals.com/zhonghao296/images2009/201003042100TaiwanJ4b.jpg
He told me the circle is the most likely place for it to occur, and let us hope that it is out in the ocean. However the rectangle presents possible locations as well.
To all, please do not contact Zhonghshao, he is sick and has limited time to finish his research, the doctors have only given him a few years to live, but he is dedicated to finishing his research even from the hospital. The only reason he replied to me is because we have been talking for many years. I want him to finish his theory and research. His website provides a lot of information, including the high possiblity that the French Air flight that crashed over Africa was caused by an earthquake cloud and he has many examples to back up the theory, it is published in a journal now.
Britton, I do am predicting something bigger around Taiwan 5.5-7.5 before the end of June, I had said this back in January, it will be significant, and I do not think the 6.4 we had is the largest. That could have been a foreshock. There have been earthquake clouds around Taiwan seen from almost every area of the island, some daily in the last few months.
#309
I think EQSA is pretty close to a real quake predictor. On my blog for March 3rd 2010 here is the prediction: www.torquepowered.com/community/blog/view/15946/15
And in the real world
Magnitude 6.6
Date-Time
* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 08:08:05 UTC
* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 05:08:05 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 37.780°N, 141.562°E
Depth 39 km (24.2 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
I subtracted 1 from the magnitude. Other wise it was right on.
03/14/2010 (3:46 pm)
@seneq, posted earlier in this blog is the Japanese experiment where they were able to reproduce quake clouds in the laboratory with electricity. I think the clouds are a possible correlation, we can see from the experiment they can be reproduced. jjap.ipap.jp/link?JJAP/39/2876/Quote:
Department of Earth and Space Science, Graduate School of Science, Osaka University, 1-1, Machikaneyama, Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043, Japan
(Received September 3, 1999; accepted for publication March 7, 2000)
Cloud and fog formation under an electric field has been studied experimentally using a Wilson's cloud chamber with a supercooled atmosphere of ethanol. The threshold electric field to generate dense clouds using parallel plate electrodes was about 4 kV/m as estimated from the generated cloud position and from a model experiment of an electric field simulation using a water bath. Positive ions produced by the ionization of the atmosphere condense nuclei for the generation of fogs and clouds. Old legends and retrospective reports on earthquake fogs (EQFs) and clouds (EQCs) prior to a major shock may be elucidated by the condensation of vapor under an intense electric field, similar to earthquake lightning (EQL) due to electro-atmospheric arc and dark discharges. A plume cloud like a streamer discharge was produced from a needle electrode, which exhibited similarities to tornado-type clouds photographed before the Kobe earthquake. Electric discharges of clouds by a wired rocket or laser-induced lightning are suggested to terminate the electric energy for the upward vortex flow of a tornado.
I think EQSA is pretty close to a real quake predictor. On my blog for March 3rd 2010 here is the prediction: www.torquepowered.com/community/blog/view/15946/15
Predicted date Mag Region Lat Long --------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-03-15 5.5 JAPAN: HONSHU: W COAST: KYOTO 33.15 136.91
And in the real world
Magnitude 6.6
Date-Time
* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 08:08:05 UTC
* Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 05:08:05 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 37.780°N, 141.562°E
Depth 39 km (24.2 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
I subtracted 1 from the magnitude. Other wise it was right on.
#310
Here are the predicted quakes over the next two months as we come into the double eclipse this summer.
2010-06-26 LUNAR,Partial
2010-07-11 SOLAR,Total
05/26/2010 (1:28 pm)
My day to day work has gotten in the way of my earth quake predictions. I did write a refined query against the NGCD data and have the final results for the predictions this summer as well as what EQSA predicted earlier this year. The predictions for 2010 through early fall are listed hereHere are the predicted quakes over the next two months as we come into the double eclipse this summer.
2010-06-26 LUNAR,Partial
2010-07-11 SOLAR,Total
SOURCE PREDICTED_DATE MAG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-05-26 6.2 KYRGYZSTAN: OSH; UZBEKISTAN: ANDIZHAN NGDC 2010-05-26 6.2 KYRGYZSTAN: OSH; UZBEKISTAN: ANDIZHAN NGDC 2010-05-28 7.5 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO; TANDAG; BISLIG NGDC 2010-05-28 7.5 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO; TANDAG; BISLIG NGDC 2010-05-29 6 NICARAGUA: GULF OF FONSECA: POTOSI NGDC 2010-05-30 6.5 JAPAN: NAKAGI NGDC 2010-05-31 6.5 JAPAN: NAKAGI NGDC 2010-06-01 6.7 TURKEY: KIRSEHIR NGDC 2010-06-01 7.1 CHINA: YUNNAN AND SICHUAN PROVINCES; CHAO-T`UNG NGDC 2010-06-01 6.7 TURKEY: KIRSEHIR NGDC 2010-06-01 6 PAKISTAN: PESHAWAR; KOHAT; SHAKKAR KHEL NGDC 2010-06-01 6 PAKISTAN: PESHAWAR; KOHAT; SHAKKAR KHEL NGDC 2010-06-02 7.1 CHINA: YUNNAN AND SICHUAN PROVINCES; CHAO-T`UNG NGDC 2010-06-03 7.7 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW IRELAND NGDC 2010-06-04 8 CHINA: GANSU PROVINCE: TIANSHUI NGDC 2010-06-06 7 CUBA: PILON; MANZANILLO NGDC 2010-06-06 8.8 MISSOURI: NEW MADRID NGDC 2010-06-06 8.8 MISSOURI: NEW MADRID NGDC 2010-06-06 7 CUBA: PILON; MANZANILLO NGDC 2010-06-07 7 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-07 7 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-07 7.7 AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND NGDC 2010-06-09 6.7 TURKEY: KURSUNLU NGDC 2010-06-12 6.6 TURKEY: HENDEK NGDC 2010-06-15 7.6 INDIA NGDC 2010-06-16 6.9 HAWAII NGDC 2010-06-16 6.9 PERU: AREQUIPA NGDC 2010-06-17 7.3 RUSSIA: OFF KAMCHATKA NGDC 2010-06-17 7.1 PAKISTAN: HARNAI-SIBI; QUETTA NGDC 2010-06-18 6.1 IRAN: ARDABIL NGDC 2010-06-20 7.5 PERU: LAMAS; CHACHAPOYAS; MOYOBAMBA; TARAPOTA NGDC 2010-06-20 6.4 IWATE; JAPAN NGDC 2010-06-21 6.9 ECUADOR: GUAYAQUIL NGDC 2010-06-25 7.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA NGDC 2010-06-25 7.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA NGDC 2010-06-25 6.7 IONIAN ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-26 6.3 RUSSIA: DAGESTAN NGDC 2010-06-26 7.5 FIJI ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-26 6.6 TURKEY: IZMIR NGDC 2010-06-26 6.6 TURKEY: IZMIR NGDC 2010-06-26 7.5 FIJI ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-26 6.3 RUSSIA: DAGESTAN NGDC 2010-06-27 6.2 ECUADOR: AMBATO; LATACUNGA; RIOBAMBA NGDC 2010-06-27 6 CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE NGDC 2010-06-27 6 CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE NGDC 2010-06-29 7.1 ALASKA NGDC 2010-07-01 7.5 CHINA: SICHUAN PROVINCE NGDC 2010-07-02 7.6 INDONESIA: MOLUCCA ISLANDS: N NGDC 2010-07-02 7.6 INDONESIA: MOLUCCA ISLANDS: N NGDC 2010-07-02 7.6 PAKISTAN: MUZAFFARABAD; URI; ANANTNAG; BARAMULA NGDC 2010-07-04 6.1 VENEZUELA NGDC 2010-07-04 8.2 JAPAN: OFF SW BOSO PENINSULA NGDC 2010-07-05 6.1 VENEZUELA NGDC 2010-07-06 8 CHINA: XINJIANG NGDC 2010-07-06 8 CHINA: XINJIANG NGDC 2010-07-08 7.3 JAPAN: MIYAZAKI NGDC 2010-07-09 7.6 CALIFORNIA: LANDERS; YUCCA VALLEY NGDC 2010-07-09 7.6 CALIFORNIA: LANDERS; YUCCA VALLEY NGDC 2010-07-10 6.7 CALIFORNIA: BIG BEAR LAKE; BIG BEAR CITY NGDC 2010-07-10 6.7 CALIFORNIA: BIG BEAR LAKE; BIG BEAR CITY NGDC 2010-07-10 7.3 TONGA ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-12 7.6 MEXICO: GUERRERO NGDC 2010-07-12 7.6 AFGHANISTAN: KABUL NGDC 2010-07-12 7.6 AFGHANISTAN: KABUL NGDC 2010-07-13 6.1 JAPAN: KYUSHU; KAGOSHIMA NGDC 2010-07-14 7.5 MEXICO: GUERRERO: PARICUTIN VOLCANO FORMS NGDC 2010-07-15 6.5 CHINA: SICHUAN PROVINCE NGDC 2010-07-16 6.3 SOUTH AFRICA: CAPE PROVINCE NGDC 2010-07-16 7.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-17 6.8 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: SOLOMON SEA NGDC 2010-07-21 7.4 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW BRITAIN: KANDRIAN; KIMBTE NGDC 2010-07-23 7.7 JAPAN: SW RYUKYU ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-23 7.7 JAPAN: SW RYUKYU ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-24 6 CHINA: S. XINJIANG NGDC 2010-07-25 7.7 VENEZUELA: LA GUAIRA NGDC 2010-07-25 7.7 VENEZUELA: LA GUAIRA NGDC 2010-07-25 7.9 GUATEMALA NGDC 2010-07-26 6.3 INDONESIA: FLORES NGDC 2010-07-26 6.7 MONGOLIA NGDC 2010-07-27 6.7 MONGOLIA NGDC 2010-07-29 8 TAIWAN NGDC 2010-07-29 7 HONSHU ISLAND; JAPAN NGDC 2010-07-29 7 HONSHU ISLAND; JAPAN NGDC 2010-07-29 6.2 CHINA: S. XINJIANG; BACHU; SHULE; YINGJISHA NGDC 2010-07-29 8 TAIWAN NGDC 2010-08-03 7.3 COLOMBIA: BOGOTA; CALI; PEREIRA NGDC 2010-08-04 7.3 COLOMBIA: BOGOTA; CALI; PEREIRA NGDC 2010-08-09 7 JAPAN: EAST COAST HONSHU
#311
2010-06-26 LUNAR,Partial
2010-07-11 SOLAR,Total
June 26th Lunar Eclipse and The July 11th Solar eclipse will cause major quakes in South America, perhaps Chile again over the next month. I'm posting this here to see what shakes out. I'm not creating a new blog post. I don't want to start a 2010 prediction scare like I did in 2009.
From what EQSA is listing Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Mexico will face major quakes over the next 60 days. Although Chile is not listed, I'm guessing we will see more quakes there too. My favorite quake picks Japan and Taiwan are also in for a rough ride. The large magnitude 6 and above quakes will begin now and end around mid September 2010.
Last year the big quakes occurred about 19-20 days after the Solar eclipse... 4 to 5 days after the lunar eclipse... expecting the same this year. Big quakes 19 to 20 days after the July 11th Solar eclipse... That means end of July.
06/22/2010 (1:28 am)
Middle part of this years prediction.2010-06-26 LUNAR,Partial
2010-07-11 SOLAR,Total
June 26th Lunar Eclipse and The July 11th Solar eclipse will cause major quakes in South America, perhaps Chile again over the next month. I'm posting this here to see what shakes out. I'm not creating a new blog post. I don't want to start a 2010 prediction scare like I did in 2009.
From what EQSA is listing Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Mexico will face major quakes over the next 60 days. Although Chile is not listed, I'm guessing we will see more quakes there too. My favorite quake picks Japan and Taiwan are also in for a rough ride. The large magnitude 6 and above quakes will begin now and end around mid September 2010.
Last year the big quakes occurred about 19-20 days after the Solar eclipse... 4 to 5 days after the lunar eclipse... expecting the same this year. Big quakes 19 to 20 days after the July 11th Solar eclipse... That means end of July.
#312
A side note of particular interest to me is the high number of quakes in China predicted by EQSA this summer. This one in particular is of interest... 2010-07-06 8 CHINA: XINJIANG. It rests along the Eurasian and Indian Plate. I expect something from there too.
Correct
Close
The close category shows a quake along the plate that I expected, but not really right on the predicted spot. These predictions don't match the highest level of scrutiny.
06/29/2010 (2:43 am)
A friend of mine said I should tabulate the results. I'm quite pleased that I have not created panic this year. Its nice I can continue to post the results and update the theory. I'm excluding any quakes less than 6.0 in magnitude even if it was in the same region near the same date. So these results pass the muster of a very difficult prediction criteria. I'm not surprised that we do not have that many quakes. As stated above I expect them to get in full swing after the July 11th solar eclipse, and continue strongly again on July 25th (next full moon)A side note of particular interest to me is the high number of quakes in China predicted by EQSA this summer. This one in particular is of interest... 2010-07-06 8 CHINA: XINJIANG. It rests along the Eurasian and Indian Plate. I expect something from there too.
Correct
SOURCE PREDICTED_DATE MAG ACTUAL MAG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-06-07 7 06-26 6.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS NGDC 2010-06-25 7.5 06-16 7.0 PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Close
SOURCE PREDICTED_DATE MAG ACTUAL MAG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-06-15 7.6 06-12 7.7 INDIA (Nicobar Islands) NGDC 2010-05-28 7.5 06-12 7.7 PHILIPPINES (Nicobar Islands) NGDC 2010-05-28 7.5 06-12 7.7 PHILIPPINES (Nicobar Islands) NGDC 2010-05-31 6.5 06-13 5.9 JAPAN: NAKAGI (Honshu) NGDC 2010-07-29 7 07-04 6.4 HONSHU ISLAND; JAPAN
The close category shows a quake along the plate that I expected, but not really right on the predicted spot. These predictions don't match the highest level of scrutiny.
#313
How are you?
It's been a few months since I have checked back here, how is your research going?
I was a little shocked to see you have two earthquake predictions for Taiwan and both of them are 8's, and on the same day! It appears however that some of your model research has produced quakes but magnitudes have been smaller. I am hoping if anything does happen it won't be an 8. So far all I have to go on for here is some earthquake clouds and a tone I heard last week.
Last week I had an ear tone, quake should be happening shortly somewhere around or in Taiwan, will be a 6+.
I have many photos of earhtquake clouds the last few weeks, I have some of them uploaded here: http://s939.photobucket.com/albums/ad239/eqpredict/July%20Album/
I also have started to upload videos to youtube, found here: http://www.youtube.com/user/eqpredict
07/16/2010 (4:56 am)
Hello Britton,How are you?
It's been a few months since I have checked back here, how is your research going?
I was a little shocked to see you have two earthquake predictions for Taiwan and both of them are 8's, and on the same day! It appears however that some of your model research has produced quakes but magnitudes have been smaller. I am hoping if anything does happen it won't be an 8. So far all I have to go on for here is some earthquake clouds and a tone I heard last week.
Last week I had an ear tone, quake should be happening shortly somewhere around or in Taiwan, will be a 6+.
I have many photos of earhtquake clouds the last few weeks, I have some of them uploaded here: http://s939.photobucket.com/albums/ad239/eqpredict/July%20Album/
I also have started to upload videos to youtube, found here: http://www.youtube.com/user/eqpredict
#314
From June 16th through July 30th, all the quakes that we have had are on my prediction list.
Now there are quite a few quakes that have not happened yet. I may be wrong about those, or they might be due. I think after a year and a half I've pretty much got it right. I came up with a final piece of the puzzle which I will post in a new blog some time this Fall. I think I've got a fairly accurate model now.
Not every prediction happened, but every magnitude 6 and above earthquake that did happen was predicted.
Here it is in this humble blog post 100% accuracy in predicting all the magnitude 6 and above quakes that actually happened globally. We have the evidence posted above.
*BWL Source is my own prediction (outside the database query of the NGDC data) listed here at 06/22/2010 (1:28 am)
As more time passes the cumulative effect of higher than normal tides increases. The higher than normal tides are due to the syzygy of the solar and lunar eclipse. This tide pushes repeatedly on the plates. So the accuracy of my prediction increases with the amount of time that passes. I think the accuracy is closer to the end of the prediction list and will continue for 2 months after the July Eclipses. I really expect a major quake any day now in Taiwan. Like today for example. I really thought we would get it yesterday.
I know we had a 5.4 Jul 17, 2010 off the coast of Taiwan, but I'm not counting it. I'm basing my prediction off of the last time we had this Saros cycle. The magnitude 8 quake that occurred June 5th 1920 in Taiwan followed 33 Days after the lunar eclipse and 18 days after the solar eclipse of this same saros series (120 and 146) that we just had. This data generated the prediction. In theory we can get the same results August 14th and August 28th, and that is another possible time frame for this quake.
If you parse out the duplicates we have 53 predictions of which about 12 came true (so far). That is 22% accuracy on all predictions. I need to trim the list down a bit, but I'll wait till September to see how things shake out. I'll take out most of the pre-eclipse predictions and remove the predictions that are land locked. I'll focus only on the regions that are near plates surrounded by large bodies of ocean water.
07/30/2010 (10:14 am)
Seneq, Yeah I'm pretty sure Tawian will have some 8 magnitude quakes. I don't want to cause alarm, but if you give me a two month window then I've accurately predicted 100% of the worlds earthquakes this summer, in fairly closely in region, time and magnitude.From June 16th through July 30th, all the quakes that we have had are on my prediction list.
SOURCE PREDICTED_DATE MAG ACTUAL MAG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-06-25 7.5 06-16 7.0 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: INDONESEA NGDC 2010-06-07 7 06-26 6.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-12 7.6 06-30 6.5 MEXICO: GUERRERO NGDC 2010-07-29 7 07-04 6.4 HONSHU ISLAND; JAPAN BWL 2010-07-11 6 + 07-12 6.4 CHILE BWL 2010-07-11 6 + 07-14 6.4 CHILE NGDC 2010-06-29 7.1 07-18 6.7 ALASKA: FOX ISLAND NGDC 2010-07-21 7.4 07-18 6.8 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW BRITAIN NGDC 2010-07-21 7.4 07-20 6.3 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW BRITAIN NGDC 2010-05-28 7.4 07-23 7.4 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO
Now there are quite a few quakes that have not happened yet. I may be wrong about those, or they might be due. I think after a year and a half I've pretty much got it right. I came up with a final piece of the puzzle which I will post in a new blog some time this Fall. I think I've got a fairly accurate model now.
Not every prediction happened, but every magnitude 6 and above earthquake that did happen was predicted.
Here it is in this humble blog post 100% accuracy in predicting all the magnitude 6 and above quakes that actually happened globally. We have the evidence posted above.
*BWL Source is my own prediction (outside the database query of the NGDC data) listed here at 06/22/2010 (1:28 am)
As more time passes the cumulative effect of higher than normal tides increases. The higher than normal tides are due to the syzygy of the solar and lunar eclipse. This tide pushes repeatedly on the plates. So the accuracy of my prediction increases with the amount of time that passes. I think the accuracy is closer to the end of the prediction list and will continue for 2 months after the July Eclipses. I really expect a major quake any day now in Taiwan. Like today for example. I really thought we would get it yesterday.
I know we had a 5.4 Jul 17, 2010 off the coast of Taiwan, but I'm not counting it. I'm basing my prediction off of the last time we had this Saros cycle. The magnitude 8 quake that occurred June 5th 1920 in Taiwan followed 33 Days after the lunar eclipse and 18 days after the solar eclipse of this same saros series (120 and 146) that we just had. This data generated the prediction. In theory we can get the same results August 14th and August 28th, and that is another possible time frame for this quake.
If you parse out the duplicates we have 53 predictions of which about 12 came true (so far). That is 22% accuracy on all predictions. I need to trim the list down a bit, but I'll wait till September to see how things shake out. I'll take out most of the pre-eclipse predictions and remove the predictions that are land locked. I'll focus only on the regions that are near plates surrounded by large bodies of ocean water.
#315
If we are looking at 22% accuracy then I'd expect 7 of the above predictions to be accurate. To be honest, August of last year was when I really hit the predictions. I expect this list to be more accurate than the May list because of the cumulative force theory. Top of the list, Japan, Taiwan and Chile. Can't seem go wrong there.
Peru and Myamar (Burma) are due also in my opinion. But, I have zero accuracy in these regions. I think the 8 Magnitudes are a bit high, but I do expect at least a 6.0 for all the predicted areas. All of these predictions are based on quakes with the 120 and 146 lunar Saros series.
07/30/2010 (1:07 pm)
A friend of mine said I need to focus on regions surrounded by ocean water and eliminate the duplicates to improve my accuracy. Here is a refined prediction for the next two months, and this wraps up this summers eclipse quake cycle.Source Predicted Mag Region ------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 08/04/2010 7.3 COLOMBIA: BOGOTA; CALI; PEREIRA NGDC 08/09/2010 7 JAPAN: EAST COAST HONSHU NGDC 08/09/2010 6.9 ECUADOR NGDC 08/09/2010 6.7 TOBAGO NGDC 08/09/2010 7.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS; VANUATU NGDC 08/11/2010 7.8 GREECE: DODECANESE NGDC 08/11/2010 6.5 GUAM NGDC 08/12/2010 6 BALKANS NW: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA: BANJA LUKA NGDC 08/17/2010 7.3 TAIWAN NGDC 08/19/2010 7 MYANMAR (BURMA) NGDC 08/20/2010 7.5 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA NGDC 08/21/2010 7.2 GULF OF ALASKA NGDC 08/21/2010 7.8 PERU NGDC 08/22/2010 7.6 VANUATU ISLANDS NGDC 08/27/2010 8.2 CHILE: ILLAPEL NGDC 08/27/2010 7.2 IRAN: BIRJAND; GHAEN NGDC 08/28/2010 6.2 CALIFORNIA: SUPERSTITION HILLS NGDC 08/30/2010 6.5 INDONESIA: TIMOR: PANTAR; MOUNT SIRUNG NGDC 09/04/2010 7.9 ALASKA: YAKUTAT NGDC 09/06/2010 8.2 INDONESIA: OFF NW COAST SUMATERA NGDC 09/08/2010 7.3 RUSSIA: OFF KAMCHATKA NGDC 09/08/2010 7.1 CHILE: LA UNION; VALDIVIA NGDC 09/09/2010 8.4 JAPAN: NANKAIDO NGDC 09/13/2010 7.2 NICARAGUA: MASACHAPA; COSTA RICA NGDC 09/15/2010 6.5 JAPAN: IZU PENINSULA NGDC 09/18/2010 7.8 JAPAN: NEAR E COAST HONSHU NGDC 09/20/2010 6 JAPAN: HONSHU: CHIBA PERFECTURE; TOKYO NGDC 09/20/2010 7.5 TAIWAN NGDC 09/22/2010 6.2 BALKANS NW: MACEDONIA: DEBAR NGDC 09/29/2010 7.5 CHINA: HEBEI PROVINCE
If we are looking at 22% accuracy then I'd expect 7 of the above predictions to be accurate. To be honest, August of last year was when I really hit the predictions. I expect this list to be more accurate than the May list because of the cumulative force theory. Top of the list, Japan, Taiwan and Chile. Can't seem go wrong there.
Peru and Myamar (Burma) are due also in my opinion. But, I have zero accuracy in these regions. I think the 8 Magnitudes are a bit high, but I do expect at least a 6.0 for all the predicted areas. All of these predictions are based on quakes with the 120 and 146 lunar Saros series.
#316
Are you able to determine within reason the latitude and longitude of these predictions, especailly for the ones you are saying will be around Taiwan?
I am quite alarmed about the possiblity of having an 8 here, although Taiwan has moderized, and updated its building codes, they are nothing like Japan or California. And Taipei City sits in an old river bed. I know there is a history of 8's in Taiwan, all of which have been off shore on the East coast, and that was roughly 100 years ago. All of us know that the cycle is roughly 100-150 years, at least that is what the experts are aware of so far.
Please post here to tell us the link to the new blog.
Will you be releasing, or selling a software version of what you have created once you make sure everything is right?
There are crickets in the parks that won't quiet down all day, it is an odd behavior I have not witnessed before. I also had an ear tone last week, so I also know a 6 or greater is on the way, and the location is difficult for me this time to pinpoint. Most likely will be off shore Ilan or Hualien areas in eastern Taiwan, but it could occur elsewhere. With this prediction, also I beleive there will be a trigger effect that will unleash another quake somewhere in the southern part or south eastern part of the island. The tone was split and usually that is what occurs, but on a smaller level, this tone however, indicated to me that it will be anywhere from 5-7 before August 10. It is about to happen.
The several small quakes that have occured recently.. several 5's and a few 4's are not the main event, this I am sure of also. I believe those two 8 quakes in Taiwan in the 1920's also did occur the same year, but I would have to go look at the map again.
In your new list, I am seeing Taiwan again, twice, this time 7's... More not great news... I also see a big 8.4 for Japan, in history I do not remember seeing any 8's in Japan, but I would have to go look.
These predictions, 2 8's and 2 7's really makes the mind boggle... if all of them are off shore and far enough away from the island than I don't worry much, but if they hit anywhere near land, the whole island is in deep trouble. The last 2 8's in the 1920's appear to be far enough away that they wouldn't cause any damage, so if your predictions turn up true, I am hoping they will be far far away... Perhaps the Ryu-ku islands in Japan would be included in your Taiwan predictions as that area is also very active....
Stay tuned, on or before August 10, 2010, we will see activity in Taiwan, most likely between 5-7, and most likely off shore.
08/06/2010 (6:33 am)
Hi Britton,Are you able to determine within reason the latitude and longitude of these predictions, especailly for the ones you are saying will be around Taiwan?
I am quite alarmed about the possiblity of having an 8 here, although Taiwan has moderized, and updated its building codes, they are nothing like Japan or California. And Taipei City sits in an old river bed. I know there is a history of 8's in Taiwan, all of which have been off shore on the East coast, and that was roughly 100 years ago. All of us know that the cycle is roughly 100-150 years, at least that is what the experts are aware of so far.
Please post here to tell us the link to the new blog.
Will you be releasing, or selling a software version of what you have created once you make sure everything is right?
There are crickets in the parks that won't quiet down all day, it is an odd behavior I have not witnessed before. I also had an ear tone last week, so I also know a 6 or greater is on the way, and the location is difficult for me this time to pinpoint. Most likely will be off shore Ilan or Hualien areas in eastern Taiwan, but it could occur elsewhere. With this prediction, also I beleive there will be a trigger effect that will unleash another quake somewhere in the southern part or south eastern part of the island. The tone was split and usually that is what occurs, but on a smaller level, this tone however, indicated to me that it will be anywhere from 5-7 before August 10. It is about to happen.
The several small quakes that have occured recently.. several 5's and a few 4's are not the main event, this I am sure of also. I believe those two 8 quakes in Taiwan in the 1920's also did occur the same year, but I would have to go look at the map again.
In your new list, I am seeing Taiwan again, twice, this time 7's... More not great news... I also see a big 8.4 for Japan, in history I do not remember seeing any 8's in Japan, but I would have to go look.
These predictions, 2 8's and 2 7's really makes the mind boggle... if all of them are off shore and far enough away from the island than I don't worry much, but if they hit anywhere near land, the whole island is in deep trouble. The last 2 8's in the 1920's appear to be far enough away that they wouldn't cause any damage, so if your predictions turn up true, I am hoping they will be far far away... Perhaps the Ryu-ku islands in Japan would be included in your Taiwan predictions as that area is also very active....
Stay tuned, on or before August 10, 2010, we will see activity in Taiwan, most likely between 5-7, and most likely off shore.
#317
Seneq, I really still don't have 100% confidence in the theory. I'm not releasing any software or going to make a big deal out of it until I get some more evidence. This summer is the first test of the new database query. It has a 7.3 listed in Taiwan on 08/17/2010. The query is based on past quakes so it does have the latitude and longitude specified. I simply take the number of days that past the eclipse to make my prediction. The 07/29/2010 magnitude 8 did not occur. But the fact that we have 3 magnitude 7s or greater for Taiwan with this Saros series makes me think one of that magnitude is very likely this summer.
Also it was the university of Taiwan (Bejing University) that published the paper stating there is a relationship between the solar lunar tidal forces and earthquakes. You should really read that paper here. Today we have higher than normal tides in Taiwan with the new moon syzygy.
The cumulative force theory seems to take place at 45 degree angles of the earth sun and moon. Oddly enough the dates that I would hand pick for August would be 08/13/2010, 08/19/2010 and 08/28/2010. The Magnitude 5.3 - NORTHWEST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS on Saturday, August 07, 2010 seems to indicate that, yes the big quake would be along the Tectonic plate which runs to North the north east of the island, and dead ends due east. New theories suggest that the quakes have synchronicity along the fault lines. I would not be surprised if we had a land based quake in Taiwan.
Alfred Wegener had proposed tidal forces as a mechanism for continental drift. However, the forces were considered far too small to cause continental motion as the concept then was of continents plowing through oceanic crust. Harry H. Hess had shown by 1962 that oceanic crust was in motion with the continents. In 1973 George W. Moore of the USGS presented evidence that tidal forces or tidal lag was a driving force for plate tectonics. In a more recent 2006 study, scientists argued that the westward component of every plate's motion is due to Earth's rotation and the tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward. So, if the moon and tidal forces moves the plates over a long period of time, it must also be responsible for the small movements over a short period of time. We call these small crustal movements "earthquakes."
All of this evidence makes me think Taiwan is due for a large quake in the near future. The animal evidence is very interesting to me. Jim Berkland believes that animals get lost right before a major quake. Have these crickets you mentioned migrated in large quantities in a way that is not normal?
This is the historic quake data used to make the prediction with the lat long for your information. Notice how tight the lat/long is?
If I'm right, then we are looking at a repeatable pattern, the earthquake monster in Taiwan (and perhaps globally) has been exposed.
The basic problem with my current algorithm is that it expects this quake to occur roughly every 18 years. And that is a big problem, enough to make me keep quiet until I'm sure its more than 22% accurate.
08/09/2010 (3:25 pm)
As stated before it makes sense to me that, magnetic, seismic and even sound wave data can be used to help predict earthquakes. So your "tones" are interesting to me as well. Perhaps you could upload a sample mp3 or wave file for us to hear and link it in the blog?Seneq, I really still don't have 100% confidence in the theory. I'm not releasing any software or going to make a big deal out of it until I get some more evidence. This summer is the first test of the new database query. It has a 7.3 listed in Taiwan on 08/17/2010. The query is based on past quakes so it does have the latitude and longitude specified. I simply take the number of days that past the eclipse to make my prediction. The 07/29/2010 magnitude 8 did not occur. But the fact that we have 3 magnitude 7s or greater for Taiwan with this Saros series makes me think one of that magnitude is very likely this summer.
Also it was the university of Taiwan (Bejing University) that published the paper stating there is a relationship between the solar lunar tidal forces and earthquakes. You should really read that paper here. Today we have higher than normal tides in Taiwan with the new moon syzygy.
Source Predicted Mag Region ------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 07/29/2010 8 TAIWAN NGDC 08/17/2010 7.3 TAIWAN NGDC 09/20/2010 7.5 TAIWAN
The cumulative force theory seems to take place at 45 degree angles of the earth sun and moon. Oddly enough the dates that I would hand pick for August would be 08/13/2010, 08/19/2010 and 08/28/2010. The Magnitude 5.3 - NORTHWEST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS on Saturday, August 07, 2010 seems to indicate that, yes the big quake would be along the Tectonic plate which runs to North the north east of the island, and dead ends due east. New theories suggest that the quakes have synchronicity along the fault lines. I would not be surprised if we had a land based quake in Taiwan.
Alfred Wegener had proposed tidal forces as a mechanism for continental drift. However, the forces were considered far too small to cause continental motion as the concept then was of continents plowing through oceanic crust. Harry H. Hess had shown by 1962 that oceanic crust was in motion with the continents. In 1973 George W. Moore of the USGS presented evidence that tidal forces or tidal lag was a driving force for plate tectonics. In a more recent 2006 study, scientists argued that the westward component of every plate's motion is due to Earth's rotation and the tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward. So, if the moon and tidal forces moves the plates over a long period of time, it must also be responsible for the small movements over a short period of time. We call these small crustal movements "earthquakes."
All of this evidence makes me think Taiwan is due for a large quake in the near future. The animal evidence is very interesting to me. Jim Berkland believes that animals get lost right before a major quake. Have these crickets you mentioned migrated in large quantities in a way that is not normal?
This is the historic quake data used to make the prediction with the lat long for your information. Notice how tight the lat/long is?
Source Date Mag Region Lat Long ------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 06/05/1920 8 TAIWAN 23.5 122.7 NGDC 10/22/1951 7.3 TAIWAN 23.8 121.7 NGDC 11/24/1951 7.5 TAIWAN 22.9 121.5 NGDC 12/23/1978 7 TAIWAN 23.2 122.07
If I'm right, then we are looking at a repeatable pattern, the earthquake monster in Taiwan (and perhaps globally) has been exposed.
The basic problem with my current algorithm is that it expects this quake to occur roughly every 18 years. And that is a big problem, enough to make me keep quiet until I'm sure its more than 22% accurate.
#318
Even if I wanted to, I wouldn't be able to send you an audio clip of the tones, because the tones are internal. You could say that the tones are like tinnitus, or ringing in the ears, no one else can hear them except the person experiencing the phenomenon.
I also use animal behavior, cloulds, instinct and weather to predict. Until now I am about 90% accurate. If something does not occur by today's end, it could be due to the typhoon looming in the pacific, or simply delayed. I have another tone from yesturday that almost made me vomit, I suspect a 5-7 once again before August 20th. We shall see.
I would agree, not to release anything final until you have perfected the system, for if you do you will surely be critized and we don't want that to happen. I suspect it will take you some time to make sure it is working properly and indeed you should do that. Do you mean until now your model is only 22% accurate? I would definately be wary of exposing any software or anything until you can get much more than that.
I cannot access the article, it is restricted. It appears I need to purchase the article. And it looks like it was done in China, not Taiwan.
If the quake is landbased it is hoped to be contained like one that occured last November in the south. It was felt, but their was minimal damage and that quake appeared to be very deep.
As for the crickets, I cannot actually see them or find them, but one can definately hear them as far as 50 meters away and in separeate areas. I am not sure if this is weather related or jsut a normal mating season for them. But I find it odd they are so active during the hot daylight hours. The last few days they have gone quiet.
This is the map I usually use to reference historical earthquakes, it seems to have some resemblances to your map, but not quite the same. http://home.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/kojiok/taiwan.htm
On this map, it appears there are four magnitude 8 quakes. Three in the waters off Eastern Taiwan, and then one North West of Taiwan near Mainland China. None of these are seen to be onland, however, there are many many 7's and larger that have hit on land. The biggest ones seemingly to be in Hualien. It is very possible that a 7 could hit there again. Last year we saw a 6.4 in December. Both of which, the one in November and the one in December I accurately predicted through tones and earthquake clouds. Both of which were felt in Taipei. If you remember last year saw a lunar eclipe in July, thus the two big quakes. Then in January there was a solar eclipse, however, until now it has failed to produce any significant quakes and hopefully won't.
There has not been a 7 in Taiwan since 2006 south of the island which slip the underwater internet cables causing massive delays, perhaps you remember this.
This list below I copied and pasted from the USGS website.
Taiwan
•1906 03 16 - Chia-i, Taiwan - M 6.8 Fatalities 1,250
•1910 04 12 - Taiwan region - M 7.6
•1920 06 05 - Taiwan region - M 8.0 Fatalities 5
•1935 04 20 - Taiwan (Formosa) - M 7.1 Fatalities 3,270
•1935 07 16 - Taiwan (Formosa) - M 6.5 Fatalities 2,740
•1959 04 26 - Taiwan region - M 7.5 Fatalities 2
•1972 01 25 - Taiwain region - M 7.5 Fatalities 1
•1972 01 25 - Taiwain region - M 7.0
•1972 04 24 - Taiwain region - M 7.2 Fatalities 4
•1998 05 03 - Southeast of Taiwan - M 7.5
•1999 09 20 - Taiwan - M 7.6 Fatalities 2,400
•2002 03 31 - Taiwan region - M 7.1 Fatalities 5
•2002 05 15 - Taiwan - M 6.2 Fatalities 1
•2003 12 10 - Taiwan - M 6.8
•2004 10 15 - Taiwan region - M 6.7
•2004 11 08 - Taiwan region - M 6.3
•2006 12 26 - Taiwan region - M 7.1 Fatalities 2
•2006 12 26 - Taiwan region - M 6.9
•2007 09 06 - Taiwan region - M 6.2
•2009 12 19 - Taiwan - M 6.4
So perhaps, an 8 quake may not be due in Taiwan for many more years to come, though if your model is accurate perhaps Taiwan will get some activity but not an 8, perhaps a 6-7 based on your model's accuracy thus far. It is indeed my hope that the model is wrong for this particular instance. Though perhaps a quake is indeed comming, as I have predicted 2 now for this month, but neither has yet to manifest itself. I hope that with some more time and more quakes that your model will succeed in its goal, that would indeed be awesome.
08/10/2010 (6:57 am)
Hi Britton,Even if I wanted to, I wouldn't be able to send you an audio clip of the tones, because the tones are internal. You could say that the tones are like tinnitus, or ringing in the ears, no one else can hear them except the person experiencing the phenomenon.
I also use animal behavior, cloulds, instinct and weather to predict. Until now I am about 90% accurate. If something does not occur by today's end, it could be due to the typhoon looming in the pacific, or simply delayed. I have another tone from yesturday that almost made me vomit, I suspect a 5-7 once again before August 20th. We shall see.
I would agree, not to release anything final until you have perfected the system, for if you do you will surely be critized and we don't want that to happen. I suspect it will take you some time to make sure it is working properly and indeed you should do that. Do you mean until now your model is only 22% accurate? I would definately be wary of exposing any software or anything until you can get much more than that.
I cannot access the article, it is restricted. It appears I need to purchase the article. And it looks like it was done in China, not Taiwan.
If the quake is landbased it is hoped to be contained like one that occured last November in the south. It was felt, but their was minimal damage and that quake appeared to be very deep.
As for the crickets, I cannot actually see them or find them, but one can definately hear them as far as 50 meters away and in separeate areas. I am not sure if this is weather related or jsut a normal mating season for them. But I find it odd they are so active during the hot daylight hours. The last few days they have gone quiet.
This is the map I usually use to reference historical earthquakes, it seems to have some resemblances to your map, but not quite the same. http://home.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/kojiok/taiwan.htm
On this map, it appears there are four magnitude 8 quakes. Three in the waters off Eastern Taiwan, and then one North West of Taiwan near Mainland China. None of these are seen to be onland, however, there are many many 7's and larger that have hit on land. The biggest ones seemingly to be in Hualien. It is very possible that a 7 could hit there again. Last year we saw a 6.4 in December. Both of which, the one in November and the one in December I accurately predicted through tones and earthquake clouds. Both of which were felt in Taipei. If you remember last year saw a lunar eclipe in July, thus the two big quakes. Then in January there was a solar eclipse, however, until now it has failed to produce any significant quakes and hopefully won't.
There has not been a 7 in Taiwan since 2006 south of the island which slip the underwater internet cables causing massive delays, perhaps you remember this.
This list below I copied and pasted from the USGS website.
Taiwan
•1906 03 16 - Chia-i, Taiwan - M 6.8 Fatalities 1,250
•1910 04 12 - Taiwan region - M 7.6
•1920 06 05 - Taiwan region - M 8.0 Fatalities 5
•1935 04 20 - Taiwan (Formosa) - M 7.1 Fatalities 3,270
•1935 07 16 - Taiwan (Formosa) - M 6.5 Fatalities 2,740
•1959 04 26 - Taiwan region - M 7.5 Fatalities 2
•1972 01 25 - Taiwain region - M 7.5 Fatalities 1
•1972 01 25 - Taiwain region - M 7.0
•1972 04 24 - Taiwain region - M 7.2 Fatalities 4
•1998 05 03 - Southeast of Taiwan - M 7.5
•1999 09 20 - Taiwan - M 7.6 Fatalities 2,400
•2002 03 31 - Taiwan region - M 7.1 Fatalities 5
•2002 05 15 - Taiwan - M 6.2 Fatalities 1
•2003 12 10 - Taiwan - M 6.8
•2004 10 15 - Taiwan region - M 6.7
•2004 11 08 - Taiwan region - M 6.3
•2006 12 26 - Taiwan region - M 7.1 Fatalities 2
•2006 12 26 - Taiwan region - M 6.9
•2007 09 06 - Taiwan region - M 6.2
•2009 12 19 - Taiwan - M 6.4
So perhaps, an 8 quake may not be due in Taiwan for many more years to come, though if your model is accurate perhaps Taiwan will get some activity but not an 8, perhaps a 6-7 based on your model's accuracy thus far. It is indeed my hope that the model is wrong for this particular instance. Though perhaps a quake is indeed comming, as I have predicted 2 now for this month, but neither has yet to manifest itself. I hope that with some more time and more quakes that your model will succeed in its goal, that would indeed be awesome.
#319
NGDC 08/22/2010 7.6 VANUATU ISLANDS
08/10/2010 (6:58 am)
And perhaps this one hit early? If so, good call.NGDC 08/22/2010 7.6 VANUATU ISLANDS
#320
www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=67&Itemi...
Yeah, I'm counting the Vanatu Islands, it is a bit early, but I do believe it fits the model. We had the high tides from the new moon syzygy. I also think more is to come there as well.
As usual Japan and Taiwan top my list of most likely large quake locations over the next few weeks. The fact that we have had sea life beachings reported in Florida make me think a quake is likely in Cuba or Columbia. The 5/25/1992 magnitude 7 CUBA: PILON; MANZANILLO was on the list for the 18 year cycle and I'm not counting it out yet. Its on the same plate that hit Hati, so in my estimation the likelihood has increased.
08/10/2010 (9:03 am)
Seneq, Sorry bud, but I really think Taiwan is due, right off the east coast. Jim Berkland at Syzygy job is compiling a list of human symptoms, much like the animal navigation problems right before a quake. Like you he also suggest ear tones, and specific types of headaches are related.www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=67&Itemi...
Quote:
On November 9th quakes of 4.0M and 3.7M struck near Willits, about 105 miles north of Mt. Diablo, well within the 140 mile radius circle as predicted. (100% Bingo) Both quakes also met my posted special prediction of November 8th that there would be a 3.5-5.5M quake within 100 miles of my home in Glen Ellen WITHIN 3 DAYS. This special prediction was part of my continuing experimentation with ear tones, which "Time Research Institute" determined were 80% accurate. Many other people report this phenomenon prior to local quakes, and at least 15 sensitives have established that they experience severe headaches within three days of local quakes.
Yeah, I'm counting the Vanatu Islands, it is a bit early, but I do believe it fits the model. We had the high tides from the new moon syzygy. I also think more is to come there as well.
SOURCE PREDICTED_DATE MAG ACTUAL MAG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-06-25 7.5 06-16 7.0 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: INDONESEA NGDC 2010-06-07 7 06-26 6.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS: SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS NGDC 2010-07-12 7.6 06-30 6.5 MEXICO: GUERRERO NGDC 2010-07-29 7 07-04 6.4 HONSHU ISLAND; JAPAN BWL 2010-07-11 6 + 07-12 6.4 CHILE BWL 2010-07-11 6 + 07-14 6.4 CHILE NGDC 2010-06-29 7.1 07-18 6.7 ALASKA: FOX ISLAND NGDC 2010-07-21 7.4 07-18 6.8 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW BRITAIN NGDC 2010-07-21 7.4 07-20 6.3 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: NEW BRITAIN NGDC 2010-05-28 7.4 07-23 7.4 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO NGDC 2010-08-22 7.6 08-10 7.3 VANUATU ISLANDS
As usual Japan and Taiwan top my list of most likely large quake locations over the next few weeks. The fact that we have had sea life beachings reported in Florida make me think a quake is likely in Cuba or Columbia. The 5/25/1992 magnitude 7 CUBA: PILON; MANZANILLO was on the list for the 18 year cycle and I'm not counting it out yet. Its on the same plate that hit Hati, so in my estimation the likelihood has increased.
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
I keep an eye on this google search. Google Beached News
Jim Berkland came up with the lunar gravitational pull / earthquake theory, with the added twist that magnetic disturbances near the quake zone caused animal life to... well... get lost. That means beaching and missing pets shortly before an earthquake.
EQSA predicted quakes in Turkey and Taiwan as well as the SEA of Japan in the near future. We have already seen the quakes in Taiwan and Turkey. I'd bet these oar fish are right. Here are the historical quakes that have occurred with the lunar Saros quartet of 115,141,120 and 146.
What we are seeing is history repeat its self. Look at all the magnitude 8 and above quakes that have occured with this Saros quartet in Japan and Taiwan in the past. Again the lunar Saros series puts the moon back in the same spot every 18 years or so. Its a great way to predict an eclipse.
According to yours truly, it is also a great way to correlate earthquakes associated with the lunar cycle.
Recent 6.4 in Taiwan
Firefighters battle a blaze at a textile factory in southern Taiwan after Thursday's powerful quake struck the region.
One of the most quake-prone countries in the world, Japan has been getting jittery, especially since several ultra-rare deep-sea oarfish have washed ashore.
The huge dragon-like fish, believed to be the genesis of sea monster legends, are a traditional earthquake omen.
They normally remain in the dark depths below 600 feet where they can grow to be 50 feet long. Japanese folklore has long held that whenever a giant oarfish shows up in a fishing net, a major tremor is nigh.